GFF
Griffon Corporation
$84.88
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 106.0% above fair value
You pay
$84.88
Bear
$32.95
Fair
$41.21
Bull
$49.45
Bear
$32.95
-61.2%
$1.52 × 12x P/E
Fair
$41.21
-51.5%
$1.52 × 15x P/E
Bull
$49.45
-41.7%
$1.52 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
56.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $115.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.21 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 39%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $115.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples