GDYN
Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc.
$8.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 55.9% above fair value
You pay
$8.05
Bear
$4.69
Fair
$5.17
Bull
$5.73
Bear
$4.69
-41.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$5.17
-35.8%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$5.73
-28.9%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
130.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
34.2%
vs 17.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$10.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
48%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $5.17 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 314% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions