GDYN
Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc.
$8.09
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 57.7% above fair value
You pay
$8.09
Bear
$4.68
Fair
$5.13
Bull
$5.65
Bear
$4.68
-42.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$5.13
-36.6%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$5.65
-30.1%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
132.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
34.3%
vs 16.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$9.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
43%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $5.13 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 314% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $9.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions