GDYN
Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc.
$5.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.1% below fair value
You pay
$5.79
Bear
$5.34
Fair
$5.91
Bull
$6.60
Bear
$5.34
-7.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$5.91
+2.1%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$6.60
+14.1%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
63.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
24.4%
vs 17.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $9.33 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.91 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 314% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $9.33 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions