GDS
GDS Holdings Limited
$24.71
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 94.1% above fair value
You pay
$24.71
Bear
$10.18
Fair
$12.73
Bull
$15.27
Bear
$10.18
-58.8%
$0.63 × 16x P/E
Fair
$12.73
-48.5%
$0.63 × 20x P/E
Bull
$15.27
-38.2%
$0.63 × 24x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
20.1x
0.63$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
39.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$43.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
71%
Summary
Applying a 20x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.63, the base-case value is $12.73 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $43.50 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1495 USD per CNY.
This stock is 49% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples