GDOT
Green Dot Corporation
$12.61
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 174.2% above fair value
You pay
$12.61
Bear
$3.22
Fair
$4.60
Bull
$5.98
Bear
$3.22
-74.5%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$4.60
-63.5%
ROTCE -19.2% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$5.98
-52.6%
ROTCE -22.0% → 0.30x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
-19.2%
8.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-19.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.39x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (39 analysts)
$19.08
Divergence from AlphaVal
76%
Summary
With ROTCE of -19.2% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $9.10 tangible book, implying $4.60 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-19.2%) is below the minimum investors require (8.9%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.08 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly