GDEN
Golden Entertainment, Inc.
$28.55
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.3% below fair value
You pay
$28.55
Bear
$13.08
Fair
$29.22
Bull
$46.50
Bear
$13.08
-54.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$29.22
+2.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$46.50
+62.9%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
24.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.4%
vs 13.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$34.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
14%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $29.22 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions