GDEN
Golden Entertainment, Inc.
$28.55
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 160.5% above fair value
You pay
$28.55
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$10.96
Bull
$26.34
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$10.96
-61.6%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$26.34
-7.8%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
44.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.96 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $28.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions