GDDY
GoDaddy Inc.
$102.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 43.7% below fair value
You pay
$102.58
Bear
$140.39
Fair
$182.30
Bull
$221.18
Bear
$140.39
+36.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$182.30
+77.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$221.18
+115.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
11.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
1.0%
vs 7.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (38 analysts)
$96.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
90%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $182.30 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 36% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $96.00 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 90% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions