GDDY
GoDaddy Inc.
$88.92
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 41.9% below fair value
You pay
$88.92
Bear
$114.89
Fair
$153.13
Bull
$189.27
Bear
$114.89
+29.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$153.13
+72.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$189.27
+112.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
10.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
0.7%
vs 8.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $103.83 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $153.13 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 36% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $103.83 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 68% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions