GCI
Gannett Co., Inc.
$5.93
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.2% below fair value
You pay
$5.93
Bear
$4.04
Fair
$6.39
Bull
$8.51
Bear
$4.04
-31.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$6.39
+7.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$8.51
+43.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
14.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.3%
vs 6.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$5.55
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $6.39 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 523% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions