GCHOY
Grupo Nutresa S. A.
$10.65
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.8% above fair value
You pay
$10.65
Bear
$7.32
Fair
$8.89
Bull
$10.46
Bear
$7.32
-31.2%
$0.51 × 14x P/E
Fair
$8.89
-16.5%
$0.51 × 17x P/E
Bull
$10.46
-1.8%
$0.51 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.3x
0.51$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.7x
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.51, the base-case value is $8.89 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from COP into USD using USDCOP at 0.0003 USD per COP.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples