GBX
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
$47.94
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 45.0% below fair value
You pay
$47.94
Bear
$69.71
Fair
$87.13
Bull
$104.56
Bear
$69.71
+45.4%
$6.41 × 12x P/E
Fair
$87.13
+81.7%
$6.41 × 15x P/E
Bull
$104.56
+118.1%
$6.41 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $60.00 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $87.13 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $31.95 (below our primary estimate by 67%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $60.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 60% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples