GBX
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
$45.91
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 51.8% below fair value
You pay
$45.91
Bear
$76.20
Fair
$95.25
Bull
$114.30
Bear
$76.20
+66.0%
$6.35 × 12x P/E
Fair
$95.25
+107.5%
$6.35 × 15x P/E
Bull
$114.30
+149.0%
$6.35 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
6.35$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$54.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
75%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.35, the base-case value is $95.25 per share. DDM cross-check: $35.19.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $35.19 (below our primary estimate by 63%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $54.40 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 75% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples