GBTG
Global Business Travel Group, Inc.
$9.48
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 145.8% above fair value
You pay
$9.48
Bear
$1.99
Fair
$3.86
Bull
$5.82
Bear
$1.99
-79.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$3.86
-59.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$5.82
-38.6%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
51.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.6%
vs 12.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$8.43
Divergence from AlphaVal
54%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $3.86 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 70% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.43 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions