GBDC
Golub Capital BDC, Inc.
$12.01
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 67.5% below fair value
You pay
$12.01
Bear
$25.84
Fair
$36.92
Bull
$48.00
Bear
$25.84
+115.2%
ROTCE 7.1% → 1.13x TBV
Fair
$36.92
+207.4%
ROTCE 9.4% → 1.99x TBV
Bull
$48.00
+299.6%
ROTCE 10.9% → 2.51x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
9.4%
6.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.4%) vs. cost of equity (6.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.79x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$14.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
155%
Summary
With ROTCE of 9.4% vs. 6.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.99x on $15.29 tangible book, implying $36.92 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 155% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly