FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
$10.89
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.9% above fair value
You pay
$10.89
Bear
$8.37
Fair
$10.00
Bull
$11.62
Bear
$8.37
-23.1%
$0.31 × 27x P/E
Fair
$10.00
-8.2%
$0.31 × 32x P/E
Bull
$11.62
+6.7%
$0.31 × 38x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
32.2x
0.31$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
35.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$16.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Summary
Applying a 32x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.31, the base-case value is $10.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.25 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples