FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
$11.49
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.6% below fair value
You pay
$11.49
Bear
$19.11
Fair
$22.82
Bull
$26.54
Bear
$19.11
+66.3%
$0.76 × 27x P/E
Fair
$22.82
+98.6%
$0.76 × 32x P/E
Bull
$26.54
+131.0%
$0.76 × 38x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $17.33 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.82 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 147%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $17.33 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 42% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples