FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
$12.12
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.4% below fair value
You pay
$12.12
Bear
$18.93
Fair
$22.61
Bull
$26.30
Bear
$18.93
+56.2%
$0.76 × 27x P/E
Fair
$22.61
+86.6%
$0.76 × 32x P/E
Bull
$26.30
+117.0%
$0.76 × 38x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.50 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.61 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 147%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.50 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 49% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples