FULT
Fulton Financial Corporation
$22.40
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 27.3% below fair value
You pay
$22.40
Bear
$19.91
Fair
$30.82
Bull
$37.36
Bear
$19.91
-11.1%
ROTCE 10.2% → 1.32x TBV
Fair
$30.82
+37.6%
ROTCE 13.6% → 2.05x TBV
Bull
$37.36
+66.8%
ROTCE 15.7% → 2.48x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.6%
8.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.49x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$26.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
16%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.6% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.05x on $15.05 tangible book, implying $30.82 per share. DDM cross-check: $211.35.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $211.35 (586% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly