FULT
Fulton Financial Corporation
$21.44
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.9% below fair value
You pay
$21.44
Bear
$18.43
Fair
$28.53
Bull
$34.59
Bear
$18.43
-14.0%
ROTCE 10.2% → 1.29x TBV
Fair
$28.53
+33.1%
ROTCE 13.6% → 2.00x TBV
Bull
$34.59
+61.3%
ROTCE 15.7% → 2.42x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.42x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.53 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $52.79 (76% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 25% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly