FUL
H.B. Fuller Company
$49.13
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.1% above fair value
You pay
$49.13
Bear
$33.00
Fair
$41.25
Bull
$49.50
Bear
$33.00
-32.8%
$2.75 × 12x P/E
Fair
$41.25
-16.0%
$2.75 × 15x P/E
Bull
$49.50
+0.8%
$2.75 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.75$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$62.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.75, the base-case value is $41.25 per share. DDM cross-check: $43.30.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $62.33 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples