FTV
Fortive Corporation
$60.25
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 130.8% above fair value
You pay
$60.25
Bear
$20.88
Fair
$26.10
Bull
$31.32
Bear
$20.88
-65.3%
$1.74 × 12x P/E
Fair
$26.10
-56.7%
$1.74 × 15x P/E
Bull
$31.32
-48.0%
$1.74 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.74$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
34.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$63.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
59%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.74, the base-case value is $26.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $63.33 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples