FTS
Fortis Inc.
$54.90
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 42.1% above fair value
You pay
$54.90
Bear
$33.80
Fair
$38.63
Bull
$43.46
Bear
$33.80
-38.4%
$2.41 × 14x P/E
Fair
$38.63
-29.6%
$2.41 × 16x P/E
Bull
$43.46
-20.8%
$2.41 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.41$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$53.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.41, the base-case value is $38.63 per share. DDM cross-check: $31.20.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $53.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7101 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples