FTNT
Fortinet, Inc.
$133.93
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 14.8% above fair value
You pay
$133.93
Bear
$65.72
Fair
$116.62
Bull
$180.23
Bear
$65.72
-50.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$116.62
-12.9%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$180.23
+34.6%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
47.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $96.59 from 68 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $116.62 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $96.59 (from 68 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions