FTNT
Fortinet, Inc.
$165.61
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 39.3% above fair value
You pay
$165.61
Bear
$67.01
Fair
$118.92
Bull
$183.77
Bear
$67.01
-59.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$118.92
-28.2%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$183.77
+11.0%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
58.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.4%
vs 19.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $103.14 from 68 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $118.92 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions