FTNT
Fortinet, Inc.
$191.38
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 42.4% above fair value
You pay
$191.38
Bear
$74.27
Fair
$134.40
Bull
$210.69
Bear
$74.27
-61.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$134.40
-29.8%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$210.69
+10.1%
27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
67.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
25.2%
vs 20.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (69 analysts)
$160.24
Divergence from AlphaVal
16%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $134.40 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions