FTI
TechnipFMC plc
$70.99
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 100.8% above fair value
You pay
$70.99
Bear
$18.99
Fair
$35.36
Bull
$55.92
Bear
$18.99
-73.3%
FCF $457M × 10x
Fair
$35.36
-50.2%
FCF $590M × 13x
Bull
$55.92
-21.2%
FCF $722M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
49.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.86 from 50 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.36 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -87%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $69.86 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential