FTI
TechnipFMC plc
$69.57
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 264.0% above fair value
You pay
$69.57
Bear
$10.39
Fair
$19.11
Bull
$30.08
Bear
$10.39
-85.1%
FCF $505M × 10x
Fair
$19.11
-72.5%
FCF $652M × 13x
Bull
$30.08
-56.8%
FCF $798M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
43.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (50 analysts)
$78.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
76%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $19.11 per share. Range: $10.39 (bear) to $30.08 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -85%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $78.25 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential