FTDR
Frontdoor, Inc.
$77.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 35.5% below fair value
You pay
$77.05
Bear
$84.69
Fair
$119.38
Bull
$154.08
Bear
$84.69
+9.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$119.38
+55.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$154.08
+100.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
13.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.3%
vs 10.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$95.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
25%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $119.38 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $95.33 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 25% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions