FTDR
Frontdoor, Inc.
$82.89
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 36.2% below fair value
You pay
$82.89
Bear
$89.18
Fair
$130.00
Bull
$171.97
Bear
$89.18
+7.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$130.00
+56.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$171.97
+107.5%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
14.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.3%
vs 12.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$90.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
43%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $130.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $90.67 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 43% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions