FTAI
FTAI Aviation Ltd.
$252.13
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 61.0% above fair value
You pay
$252.13
Bear
$125.29
Fair
$156.60
Bull
$187.92
Bear
$125.29
-50.3%
$4.62 × 18x P/E
Fair
$156.60
-37.9%
$4.62 × 22x P/E
Bull
$187.92
-25.5%
$4.62 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
54.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $314.83 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $156.60 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $28.44 (below our primary estimate by 73%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $314.83 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples