FSLR
First Solar, Inc.
$223.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 5.0% below fair value
You pay
$223.82
Bear
$183.77
Fair
$235.48
Bull
$285.66
Bear
$183.77
-17.9%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$235.48
+5.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$285.66
+27.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
18.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.7%
vs 9.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $257.71 from 73 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $235.48 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions