FSBC Five Star Bancorp
$47.51
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 27.6% below fair value

You pay $47.51
Bear $42.52
Fair $65.60
Bull $79.45
Bear $42.52 -10.5% ROTCE 10.4% → 2.04x TBV
Fair $65.60 +38.1% ROTCE 13.8% → 3.15x TBV
Bull $79.45 +67.2% ROTCE 15.9% → 3.81x TBV

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.8%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.28x

Summary

With ROTCE of 13.8% vs. 7.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.15x on $20.86 tangible book, implying $65.60 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly