FRPT
Freshpet, Inc.
$64.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.8% below fair value
You pay
$64.12
Bear
$46.44
Fair
$73.52
Bull
$103.05
Bear
$46.44
-27.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$73.52
+14.7%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$103.05
+60.7%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
22.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.6%
vs 14.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$70.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $73.52 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 13% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions