FRPT
Freshpet, Inc.
$51.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.2% below fair value
You pay
$51.58
Bear
$38.34
Fair
$58.76
Bull
$80.27
Bear
$38.34
-25.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$58.76
+13.9%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$80.27
+55.6%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
23.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $77.33 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.76 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 13% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Wall Street's average price target is $77.33 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions