FPS
Forgent Power Solutions, Inc.
$33.19
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2001.7% above fair value
You pay
$33.19
Bear
$1.38
Fair
$1.58
Bull
$1.78
Bear
$1.38
-95.8%
$0.07 × 21x P/E
Fair
$1.58
-95.2%
$0.07 × 24x P/E
Bull
$1.78
-94.6%
$0.07 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
24.0x
0.07$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
504.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$56.44
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Summary
Applying a 24x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.07, the base-case value is $1.58 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $56.44 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 97% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples