FPH Five Point Holdings, LLC
$5.16
Stable Earnings Power 60%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 40.2% below fair value

You pay $5.16
Bear $6.90
Fair $8.62
Bull $10.35
Bear $6.90 +33.7% $0.48 × 14x P/E
Fair $8.62 +67.1% $0.48 × 18x P/E
Bull $10.35 +100.5% $0.48 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
0.48$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.8x

Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.48, the base-case value is $8.62 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples