FPH
Five Point Holdings, LLC
$4.30
Stable Earnings Power
60%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 50.1% below fair value
You pay
$4.30
Bear
$6.90
Fair
$8.62
Bull
$10.35
Bear
$6.90
+60.4%
$0.48 × 14x P/E
Fair
$8.62
+100.5%
$0.48 × 18x P/E
Bull
$10.35
+140.6%
$0.48 × 22x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
0.48$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.0x
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.48, the base-case value is $8.62 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples