FOXF
Fox Factory Holding Corp.
$18.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 53.1% below fair value
You pay
$18.05
Bear
$23.95
Fair
$38.48
Bull
$52.86
Bear
$23.95
+32.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$38.48
+113.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$52.86
+192.9%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
12.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.1%
vs 10.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$21.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
78%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $38.48 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $21.67 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 78% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions