FOX
Fox Corporation
$56.51
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.4% below fair value
You pay
$56.51
Bear
$46.80
Fair
$58.50
Bull
$70.20
Bear
$46.80
-17.2%
$3.90 × 12x P/E
Fair
$58.50
+3.5%
$3.90 × 15x P/E
Bull
$70.20
+24.2%
$3.90 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.9$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (43 analysts)
$84.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
31%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.90, the base-case value is $58.50 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $84.75 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples