FOUR
Shift4 Payments, Inc.
$49.09
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 74.8% below fair value
You pay
$49.09
Bear
$101.88
Fair
$195.11
Bull
$301.30
Bear
$101.88
+107.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$195.11
+297.5%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$301.30
+513.8%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.1%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
12.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.8%
vs 16.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$52.73
Divergence from AlphaVal
270%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $195.11 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 69% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $52.73 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 270% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions