FORR
Forrester Research, Inc.
$11.75
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 287.8% above fair value
You pay
$11.75
Bear
$2.42
Fair
$3.03
Bull
$3.64
Bear
$2.42
-79.4%
$0.20 × 12x P/E
Fair
$3.03
-74.2%
$0.20 × 15x P/E
Bull
$3.64
-69.1%
$0.20 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.2$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
58.2x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.20, the base-case value is $3.03 per share. DDM cross-check: $24.35.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $24.35 (above our primary estimate by 703%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples