FND
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
$57.13
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 197.6% above fair value
You pay
$57.13
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$19.20
Bull
$3.89
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$19.20
-66.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$3.89
-93.2%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
71.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
28.1%
vs 12.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $64.00 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.20 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $64.00 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions