FND
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
$45.50
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% below fair value
You pay
$45.50
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$0.00
Bull
$3.77
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$0.00
-100.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$3.77
-91.7%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.3%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
57.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
25.2%
vs 11.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$60.42
Divergence from AlphaVal
100%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $60.42 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions