FNB
F.N.B. Corporation
$18.32
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 16.8% below fair value
You pay
$18.32
Bear
$14.16
Fair
$22.03
Bull
$26.75
Bear
$14.16
-22.7%
ROTCE 10.0% → 1.19x TBV
Fair
$22.03
+20.2%
ROTCE 13.3% → 1.85x TBV
Bull
$26.75
+46.0%
ROTCE 15.3% → 2.24x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.3%
9.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.3%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.54x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$21.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
5%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.3% vs. 9.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.85x on $11.92 tangible book, implying $22.03 per share. DDM cross-check: $6.13.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $6.13 (72% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly