FNB
F.N.B. Corporation
$18.83
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.8% below fair value
You pay
$18.83
Bear
$14.04
Fair
$21.84
Bull
$26.52
Bear
$14.04
-25.4%
ROTCE 10.0% → 1.19x TBV
Fair
$21.84
+16.0%
ROTCE 13.3% → 1.86x TBV
Bull
$26.52
+40.8%
ROTCE 15.3% → 2.25x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.3%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.58x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.84 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.71 (74% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly