FN
Fabrinet
$363.51
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 99.9% above fair value
You pay
$363.51
Bear
$111.06
Fair
$181.85
Bull
$270.39
Bear
$111.06
-69.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$181.85
-50.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$270.39
-25.6%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
97.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
30.1%
vs 19.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$769.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
76%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $181.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $769.50 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions