FMBH
First Mid Bancshares, Inc.
$49.73
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.7% below fair value
You pay
$49.73
Bear
$32.65
Fair
$51.10
Bull
$62.18
Bear
$32.65
-34.3%
ROTCE 9.8% → 1.23x TBV
Fair
$51.10
+2.8%
ROTCE 13.0% → 1.93x TBV
Bull
$62.18
+25.0%
ROTCE 15.0% → 2.34x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.0%
8.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.0%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.87x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$54.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
7%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.0% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.93x on $26.53 tangible book, implying $51.10 per share. DDM cross-check: $16.95.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $16.95 (67% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly