FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
$30.90
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.8% below fair value
You pay
$30.90
Bear
$21.14
Fair
$33.89
Bull
$41.54
Bear
$21.14
-31.6%
ROTCE 8.9% → 1.04x TBV
Fair
$33.89
+9.7%
ROTCE 11.9% → 1.67x TBV
Bull
$41.54
+34.4%
ROTCE 13.7% → 2.05x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.52x
Summary
With ROTCE of 11.9% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.67x on $20.29 tangible book, implying $33.89 per share. DDM cross-check: $19.09.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $19.09 (44% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly