FLYW
Flywire Corp
$18.76
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.4% above fair value
You pay
$18.76
Bear
$11.37
Fair
$18.14
Bull
$26.58
Bear
$11.37
-39.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$18.14
-3.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$26.58
+41.7%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
40.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.5%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$21.27
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $18.14 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 532% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions