FLYW
Flywire Corporation
$16.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 53.6% below fair value
You pay
$16.12
Bear
$20.16
Fair
$34.72
Bull
$53.01
Bear
$20.16
+25.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$34.72
+115.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$53.01
+228.9%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
16.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.56 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.72 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $18.56 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 116% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions