FLYW
Flywire Corp
$16.54
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.3% below fair value
You pay
$16.54
Bear
$11.25
Fair
$17.85
Bull
$26.09
Bear
$11.25
-32.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$17.85
+7.9%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$26.09
+57.7%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
36.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.1%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.14 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.85 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 532% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions