FLUT
Flutter Entertainment plc
$75.85
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 55.0% below fair value
You pay
$75.85
Bear
$93.63
Fair
$168.60
Bull
$249.40
Bear
$93.63
+23.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$168.60
+122.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$249.40
+228.8%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
16.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.5%
vs 13.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$133.13
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $168.60 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $133.13 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions