FLUT
Flutter Entertainment plc
$97.38
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.4% below fair value
You pay
$97.38
Bear
$61.68
Fair
$138.01
Bull
$224.50
Bear
$61.68
-36.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$138.01
+41.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$224.50
+130.5%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
29.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $206.13 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $138.01 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $206.13 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions