FLUT
Flutter Entertainment plc
$110.00
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.5% below fair value
You pay
$110.00
Bear
$57.62
Fair
$127.10
Bull
$204.33
Bear
$57.62
-47.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$127.10
+15.5%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$204.33
+85.8%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
31.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.2%
vs 14.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $190.25 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $127.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $190.25 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions