FLNG
FLEX LNG Ltd
$29.85
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 380.9% above fair value
You pay
$29.85
Bear
$6.21
Fair
$6.21
Bull
$8.37
Bear
$6.21
-79.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$6.21
-79.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$8.37
-71.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
22.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.5%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $6.21 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions