FLNC
Fluence Energy, Inc.
$24.80
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 218.1% above fair value
You pay
$24.80
Bear
$6.38
Fair
$7.80
Bull
$9.22
Bear
$6.38
-74.3%
$0.12 × 27x P/E
Fair
$7.80
-68.6%
$0.12 × 33x P/E
Bull
$9.22
-62.8%
$0.12 × 39x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (33x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
206.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.31 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.80 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $19.31 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples