FLGT Fulgent Genetics, Inc.
$19.59
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 57.1% below fair value

You pay $19.59
Bear $36.50
Fair $45.63
Bull $54.76
Bear $36.50 +86.3% $2.03 × 18x P/E
Fair $45.63 +132.9% $2.03 × 22x P/E
Bull $54.76 +179.5% $2.03 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
2.03$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.7x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (9 analysts) $19.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 140%

Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.03, the base-case value is $45.63 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 140% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples