FLGT
Fulgent Genetics, Inc.
$19.59
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 57.1% below fair value
You pay
$19.59
Bear
$36.50
Fair
$45.63
Bull
$54.76
Bear
$36.50
+86.3%
$2.03 × 18x P/E
Fair
$45.63
+132.9%
$2.03 × 22x P/E
Bull
$54.76
+179.5%
$2.03 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
2.03$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$19.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
140%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.03, the base-case value is $45.63 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 140% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples