FLGT
Fulgent Genetics, Inc.
$20.21
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 88.9% below fair value
You pay
$20.21
Bear
$145.44
Fair
$181.80
Bull
$218.16
Bear
$145.44
+619.5%
$9.93 × 18x P/E
Fair
$181.80
+799.3%
$9.93 × 22x P/E
Bull
$218.16
+979.2%
$9.93 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
2.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $181.80 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $15.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 1390% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples