FLEX Flex Ltd.
$132.47
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 109.7% above fair value

You pay $132.47
Bear $50.53
Fair $63.17
Bull $75.81
Bear $50.53 -61.9% $2.39 × 12x P/E
Fair $63.17 -52.3% $2.39 × 15x P/E
Bull $75.81 -42.8% $2.39 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 55.4x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $145.17 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $63.17 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $145.17 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples