FIZZ
National Beverage Corp.
$35.28
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.4% below fair value
You pay
$35.28
Bear
$34.50
Fair
$40.26
Bull
$46.00
Bear
$34.50
-2.2%
$1.99 × 18x P/E
Fair
$40.26
+14.1%
$1.99 × 21x P/E
Bull
$46.00
+30.4%
$1.99 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.26 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 761% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples