FIZZ
National Beverage Corp.
$35.82
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.0% below fair value
You pay
$35.82
Bear
$35.28
Fair
$41.16
Bull
$47.04
Bear
$35.28
-1.5%
$1.96 × 18x P/E
Fair
$41.16
+14.9%
$1.96 × 21x P/E
Bull
$47.04
+31.3%
$1.96 × 24x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.0x
1.96$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$31.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
33%
Summary
Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.96, the base-case value is $41.16 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 791% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $31.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 33% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples