FIZZ
National Beverage Corp.
$30.92
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.8% below fair value
You pay
$30.92
Bear
$33.90
Fair
$39.55
Bull
$45.20
Bear
$33.90
+9.6%
$1.96 × 18x P/E
Fair
$39.55
+27.9%
$1.96 × 21x P/E
Bull
$45.20
+46.2%
$1.96 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $33.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $39.55 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 791% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples