FIX
Comfort Systems USA, Inc.
$1,828.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 74.8% above fair value
You pay
$1,828.27
Bear
$664.95
Fair
$1,045.75
Bull
$1,474.28
Bear
$664.95
-63.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$1,045.75
-42.8%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$1,474.28
-19.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
63.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1923.20 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1045.75 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1923.20 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions