FIX
Comfort Systems USA, Inc.
$1,481.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 77.9% above fair value
You pay
$1,481.01
Bear
$529.24
Fair
$832.34
Bull
$1,173.44
Bear
$529.24
-64.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$832.34
-43.8%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$1,173.44
-20.8%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
50.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.5%
vs 15.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$2082.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
60%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $832.34 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $2082.50 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions