FIVN
Five9, Inc.
$31.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 9.3% below fair value
You pay
$31.20
Bear
$21.52
Fair
$34.41
Bull
$48.68
Bear
$21.52
-31.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$34.41
+10.3%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$48.68
+56.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
24.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.8%
vs 15.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$23.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $34.41 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 376% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.33 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 47% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions