FIVN
Five9, Inc.
$21.32
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.6% below fair value
You pay
$21.32
Bear
$17.38
Fair
$27.92
Bull
$39.60
Bear
$17.38
-18.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$27.92
+31.0%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$39.60
+85.7%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
19.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.7%
vs 15.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.00 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.92 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 376% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.00 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 31% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions