FIVN
Five9, Inc.
$35.77
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.0% above fair value
You pay
$35.77
Bear
$21.91
Fair
$35.42
Bull
$50.54
Bear
$21.91
-38.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$35.42
-1.0%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$50.54
+41.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
28.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.5%
vs 15.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$31.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $35.42 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 376% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions