FISV
Fiserv, Inc.
$54.21
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.3% below fair value
You pay
$54.21
Bear
$54.77
Fair
$59.12
Bull
$68.38
Bear
$54.77
+1.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$59.12
+9.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$68.38
+26.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
13.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.3%
vs 3.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $65.29 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.12 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions