FIHL
Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited
$23.06
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 53.4% below fair value
You pay
$23.06
Bear
$47.35
Fair
$49.53
Bull
$49.53
Bear
$47.35
+105.3%
ROTCE 12.9% → 3.82x TBV
Fair
$49.53
+114.8%
ROTCE 17.2% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$49.53
+114.8%
ROTCE 19.7% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
17.2%
6.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (17.2%) vs. cost of equity (6.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.86x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$21.90
Divergence from AlphaVal
126%
Summary
With ROTCE of 17.2% vs. 6.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $12.38 tangible book, implying $49.53 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.90 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 126% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly