FIHL
Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited
$23.06
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 50.2% below fair value
You pay
$23.06
Bear
$26.17
Fair
$46.33
Bull
$58.43
Bear
$26.17
+13.5%
ROTCE 7.0% → 1.31x TBV
Fair
$46.33
+100.9%
ROTCE 9.4% → 2.33x TBV
Bull
$58.43
+153.4%
ROTCE 10.8% → 2.94x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.4%) vs. cost of equity (6.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.02x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.17 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.33 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.17 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 149% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly