FIHL
Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited
$23.06
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.4% below fair value
You pay
$23.06
Bear
$41.94
Fair
$43.87
Bull
$43.87
Bear
$41.94
+81.9%
ROTCE 12.9% → 3.82x TBV
Fair
$43.87
+90.3%
ROTCE 17.2% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$43.87
+90.3%
ROTCE 19.7% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (17.2%) vs. cost of equity (6.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.86x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.25 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.87 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.25 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 133% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly