FIGS
FIGS, Inc.
$12.54
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 76.6% above fair value
You pay
$12.54
Bear
$6.00
Fair
$7.10
Bull
$8.15
Bear
$6.00
-52.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.10
-43.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$8.15
-35.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
56.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $12.92 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.10 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 78% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.92 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions