FIGS
FIGS, Inc.
$10.33
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 37.8% above fair value
You pay
$10.33
Bear
$6.33
Fair
$7.50
Bull
$8.60
Bear
$6.33
-38.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.50
-27.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$8.60
-16.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
45.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.8%
vs 8.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.50 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.50 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 78% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.50 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions