FIGS
FIGS, Inc.
$15.78
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 205.6% above fair value
You pay
$15.78
Bear
$4.36
Fair
$5.16
Bull
$5.92
Bear
$4.36
-72.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$5.16
-67.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$5.92
-62.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
72.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
26.2%
vs 8.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$18.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
71%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $5.16 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 78% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions