FIGR
Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$27.55
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.6% below fair value
You pay
$27.55
Bear
$18.04
Fair
$29.82
Bull
$34.61
Bear
$18.04
-34.5%
ROTCE 8.2% → 2.08x TBV
Fair
$29.82
+8.2%
ROTCE 10.9% → 3.45x TBV
Bull
$34.61
+25.6%
ROTCE 12.5% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (10.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
4.09x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $56.33 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.82 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $56.33 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly