FIGR
Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$28.46
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 22.7% above fair value
You pay
$28.46
Bear
$14.03
Fair
$23.19
Bull
$26.92
Bear
$14.03
-50.7%
ROTCE 8.2% → 2.08x TBV
Fair
$23.19
-18.5%
ROTCE 10.9% → 3.45x TBV
Bull
$26.92
-5.4%
ROTCE 12.5% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
10.9%
6.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (10.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
4.23x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
54%
Summary
With ROTCE of 10.9% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.45x on $6.73 tangible book, implying $23.19 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly