FIG
Figma, Inc.
$21.12
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.5% below fair value
You pay
$21.12
Bear
$13.56
Fair
$27.62
Bull
$39.43
Bear
$13.56
-35.8%
18% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$27.62
+30.8%
30% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$39.43
+86.7%
35% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
60%
Implied Market Multiple
8.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.62 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay is 129% of revenue — your ownership shrinks by about 2.0% each year as new shares are issued. Our estimate already accounts for this dilution.
Gross margin of 82% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep