FICO
Fair Isaac Corporation
$719.63
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.6% below fair value
You pay
$719.63
Bear
$475.61
Fair
$804.78
Bull
$1,167.44
Bear
$475.61
-33.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$804.78
+11.8%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$1,167.44
+62.2%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
24.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.5%
vs 14.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$1199.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
33%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $804.78 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1199.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions