FI
Fiserv, Inc.
$63.80
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.6% below fair value
You pay
$63.80
Bear
$103.15
Fair
$107.37
Bull
$120.25
Bear
$103.15
+61.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$107.37
+68.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$120.25
+88.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
10.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $148.38 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $107.37 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $148.38 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions