FI Fiserv, Inc.
$63.80
Platform & Compounding FCF 50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 52.2% below fair value

You pay $63.80
Bear $128.81
Fair $133.41
Bull $147.49
Bear $128.81 +101.9% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair $133.41 +109.1% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull $147.49 +131.2% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 8.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) -3.3% vs 3.4% base

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (31 analysts) $64.33
Divergence from AlphaVal 107%

Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $133.41 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $64.33 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 107% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions