FI
Fiserv, Inc.
$63.80
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.7% below fair value
You pay
$63.80
Bear
$78.26
Fair
$81.46
Bull
$91.23
Bear
$78.26
+22.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$81.46
+27.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$91.23
+43.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
10.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
0.5%
vs 3.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $62.00 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $81.46 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $62.00 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 45% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions